Trends Impacting the 2024 Holiday Shopping Season and How Brands Can Prep for Success

It may be the happiest time of the year for retailers, but this year, the economy and overseas competition may make it the most unpredictable one since COVID. As brands prepare for another drawn-out holiday shopping season, there are a few obstacles and "what-ifs" that may impact company profits.

E-commerce marketing platform Omnisend analyzed sales of 45,000 U.S.-based e-commerce brands and found that sales in October fell by 10.1 percent year-over-year, with the number of orders decreasing 23.4 percent.

For comparison, last year brands sold 17.7 percent more orders in October than they did during the same period in 2022. With holiday shopping starting earlier each year, the kickoff to this year’s extended holiday shopping season has been slower than expected, despite the NRF predicting that holiday spending will reach a new record in 2024.

Amazon.com's recent Prime Big Deal Days, named its "biggest ever," combined with Walmart and Target’s corresponding sales events likely pulled a significant share of consumer spending, which left many direct-to-consumer retailers feeling the impact and leading to a thinner spread across Q4.

Additionally, volatile economic conditions and the rise of deep discount retailers such as Temu lure shoppers away from smaller brands by consistently undercutting prices. In fact, 70 percent of U.S. consumers report making a purchase on Temu in the past year. These shifts not only strain smaller brands but also reshape consumer expectations, normalizing rock-bottom prices and reinforcing a culture of bargain-hunting that can make loyalty and long-term brand growth harder to achieve.

What does this mean for brands?

Keep in Mind the Economy and Overall Trends in Consumer Spending

With interest rates recently lowered, the economy shows cautious stability. As consumers become more intentional with spending post-inflation, one-third of U.S. shoppers plan to cut back this holiday season. For brands, this means marketing efforts must intensify to maintain engagement and compete for customers in an uncertain market, a particular challenge for small businesses.

Brands should emphasize value, showcasing shipping and return policies, satisfaction guarantees, gift-wrapping, product quality, and social proof to build consumer trust. Additionally, offering value-added pricing through bundles, category-specific sales, and bonus incentives can attract shoppers while preserving margins.

Competing With Marketplaces, Prime Big Deal Days, and Timing Discounts

Value-conscious shoppers are increasingly turning to discount platforms like Temu and Shein, impacting smaller retailers. Besides competitive pricing, these marketplaces will likely dominate paid ad spaces, raising ad costs for brands across social media and digital platforms.

To counter these pressures, brands should leverage high-ROI, first-party channels such as email and SMS to maximize engagement and reduce ad costs by syncing customer data for effective retargeting. October’s Prime Big Deal Days signaled the holiday season’s unofficial start, so brands should be prepared to offer value early and gradually increase discounts, leaning into Black Friday week and utilizing high-conversion, low-competition weekend sends to boost visibility.

Everyone expects this year’s holiday season to be better than the last, but how much is a mystery. Properly planning for the "what-ifs" and taking advantage of small opportunities may make all the difference between a stagnant and great Q4.

Greg Zakowicz is a veteran marketer and the senior e-commerce expert at Omnisend, the all-in-one e-commerce marketing automation platform.