Three Years and $3 Million to Break Even

Is this rule of thumb actually true?

In logic, a proposition is disproved by finding a single exception, and in that sense, this rule of thumb is surely false, since a few catalogs do achieve profitability on their very first mailing.

But it’s also true that those catalogers are definitely the exceptions—Most new catalogs nowadays are unprofitable at launch, and remain unprofitable for several years.