The Iron Rule of RFM

My intuition answers “yes” to both questions.

But clearly, my intuition is wrong—because in fact, recency isn’t just a good predictor of a high likelihood to re-buy, many catalogers consider it to be the strongest predictor of the three RFM variables.

Why? Perhaps buying something puts people into a “buying mood,” so they feel like buying again and again. Or maybe a first purchase creates a need for additional, supporting purchases—a new sweater to go with the new skirt, then new shoes to finish the outfit, then a new necklace to match. Whatever the reason (and no one really knows for certain why recency is such a powerful predictor of future sales), recency is a very strong predictor of immediate re-buying.