Retail Sales Rise in November, Aligning With NRF's Holiday Sales Forecast
November retail sales grew at a faster pace than Wall Street analysts had expected, reflecting continued resilience in the American consumer and indicating that the holiday shopping season in the U.S. is off to a strong start, reports Yahoo Finance. Retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November. Economists had expected a 0.6 percent rise in spending, according to Bloomberg data. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), November’s core retail sales as defined by the NRF — U.S. Census Bureau data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted month-over-month.
November’s results align with the NRF’s forecast that holiday sales will grow 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent over 2023. The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, but nearly half (45 percent) of holiday shoppers planned to begin before then and 58 percent had started by early November.
Total Retail's Take: “November’s results show a strong start to the traditional holiday season,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. Consumers are continuing to spend big during the holiday season regardless of a shaky outlook on the economy and a compressed shopping timeframe. According to the NRF, job and wage gains, modest inflation, and a heathy balance sheet have led to solid holiday spending. Home-related categories, including home furnishings and home improvement, saw notable increases.
David Silverman, senior director at Fitch Ratings, offers the following on November retail sales:
"As we’ve noted for many months, while overall retail sales continue to demonstrate shoppers’ resilience to headwinds like inflation and rising interest rates, spending selectivity can be seen through softer results in categories like consumer electronics and apparel. November is increasingly a difficult month to analyze on its own, as retailers introduce holiday promotions earlier and earlier, but these reported figures suggest a generally reasonable start to the season."
What does November's sales data signal for the start of 2025? Chip West, RRD retail and consumer behavior expert, commented the following:
"I predict retail activity to remain strong heading into 2025, driven by improving consumer confidence, easing inflation, lower interest rates, and potentially stabilizing prices. Potential new tariffs remain an unknown, and their impact on discretionary spending will be a key factor to watch in the new year."
Kristina Stidham is the digital content director at Total Retail and sister brands Women in Retail Leadership Circle and Women Leading Travel & Hospitality at NAPCO Media. She is passionate about digital media and handles video, podcast and virtual event production for all brands. You can often find her at WIRLC, TR, WLT&H or industry events with her camera and podcasting equipment—or at home on Zoom—recording interviews with thought leaders and business executives.
Kristina holds a B.A. in Media Studies and Production from the Temple University Klein College of Media and Communication in Philadelphia. Go Owls! When she's not in the office, she loves to go on long walks, sing around the house, hangout with her family and two pet guinea pigs, and travel to new places.
