Report: Cyber Monday on Track to Be Biggest Online Shopping Day of 2021

Cyber Monday is on track to be the biggest online shopping day of the year, according to the latest online shopping data from the Adobe Digital Economy Index, which analyzes direct consumer transactions online. Adobe expects consumers to spend between $10.2 billion and $11.3 billion on Cyber Monday. Last year, consumers spent $10.8 billion on Cyber Monday. Adobe also reported that both Black Friday ($8.9 billion, down from $9 billion year-over-year in 2020) and Thanksgiving Day ($5.1 billion, flat year-over-year) came in at the low end of Adobe’s prediction.

"It's the first time we've seen decreased spending on the big shopping days, which have seen healthy growth rates since Adobe first began reporting on e-commerce in 2012," the company said in an email message. The reason for the drop, according to Adobe, is due in part to a stronger early holiday season: Consumers already spent  $99.1 billion from Nov. 1 to Nov. 28, up 13.6 percent year-over-year. In addition, during November, a record 21 days have exceeded $3 billon in online sales. In 2020, only eight days topped $3 billion by Nov. 28.

Total Retail's Take: While Cyber Monday is still on track to bring in big sales numbers this year, in general, consumers started holiday shopping earlier this year than they have in past. The reason? In part, it could be due to the effectiveness of early promotional deals retailers put in place. Another reason may be that consumers took the supply chain issues retailers are facing this year very seriously and shopped early to ensure they had their gifts in hand on Christmas.

“Online sales on big shopping days like Thanksgiving and Black Friday are decreasing for the first time in history, and it's beginning to smooth out the shape of the overall season,” said Taylor Schreiner, director, Adobe Digital Insights, in an email statement. “With 21 days in November driving over $3 billion in spend, what we know as Cyber Week is starting to look more like Cyber Month."

Additional insights around the holiday shopping season from the Adobe Digital Economy Index include:

• Out-of-Stock: Over the weekend (Nov. 27 to Nov. 28), the prevalence of out-of-stock messages is up 16 percent compared to the weekend before (Nov. 20 to Nov. 21).
• Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL): Usage of BNPL services has slowed. From Nov. 27 to Nov. 28, BNPL revenue is down 10 percent year-over-year, with orders down 23 percent.
• Small Businesses:  Despite the push around “Small Business Saturday,” smaller shops were not the benefactors of online spending over the weekend. Large retailers (over $1 billion in annual revenue) saw 11 percent more revenue growth over October compared to small retailers ($10 million to $50 million) on Saturday, Nov. 27.
• Curbside Pickup: Over the weekend, curbside pickup grew 33 percent over pre-pandemic levels and was used in 18 percent of online orders (for retailers who offer the service). Last year at this point, it was used in 25 percent of all online orders.