NRF: Steady Sales Growth Projected for 2024 Holiday Season

The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts holiday spending to grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent this holiday season, potentially easing concerns over any economic downturns expected. The retail industry trade association said we should expect people to spend between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in November and December, compared to $955.6 billion in 2023.

“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a press release. “The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”

Total Retail's Take: Online shopping is expected to be credited for a large proportion of 2024 holiday sales, although a new survey from Experian shows consumers are starting to go back to stores for their holiday shopping. If trends from last year continue, 66 percent of holiday shopping will be done in stores, according to the report.

As many retailers are aware, the 2024 holiday shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas is five days shorter than last year — only 26 days — putting pressure on retailers to meet year-over-year sales goals sooner.

Other unknown factors, including the economic impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, may affect holiday spending as well.