How YOU Doin’? The Skinny on the Shows

It’s amazing how upbeat people can be at industry events regardless how well or poorly their businesses are doing, isn’t it? I just wrapped up a month in which I attended two major conferences (ACCM in Boston and Internet Retailer in San Jose, Calif.) and despite the striking difference among attendees, it seems that everybody’s doing just grand.

But are they?

Having flagged as many of you down as I could to ask you how you’re doing, I came away from ACCM believing you truly are. And as we look ahead toward the second half of the year and make holiday season plans, my sense is that catalogers and other multichannel merchants should feel — and plan — optimistically.

As for Internet Retailer, I couldn’t get anywhere near as clear a picture. A more heavily attended but less involved (with regard to the sessions) a conference, there’s a greater emphasis on education than schmoozing there.

What’s more, Internet Retailer attendees are a little more in the trenches than ACCM attendees, so their immediate concern is more on figuring out the next best search marketing technique rather than worrying about their most recent quarterly performance. And whereas most attendees at the Boston Catalog Conference were first and foremost catalog mailers, there were very few catalogers to be found at Internet Retailer.

Positive Vibes

Nevertheless, I got a fairly positive vibe from Internet Retailer as well even though the topics du jour at the two conferences were considerably different.

But if you think the catalog/multichannel business is dominated by smaller, entrepreneurial companies with sales averaging in the double-digit millions, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. According to one source, 36 percent of Internet Retailer attendees were from companies with annual sales of $10 million or less. Many were from Internet-based companies, some of which serve a middleman function between Web site host company and customer. A few were from dedicated retailers and there were hardly any catalogers.

And what were the big topics at the two events? The postage increase was naturally the most prevalent topic of conversation at the Catalog Conference. By now, you’re probably getting tired of reading about it, but unfortunately, it’s not an issue that’ll just go away.

‘Business As Usual’

Interestingly enough, when I asked a number of you during the ACCM what you’ve done or plan to do to offset the postage increase, most of you seemed to indicate that you’ve just bit the bullet and are forging ahead as previously planned.

Some tweaked their paper weights and trim sizes a little, most are doing whatever comailing they can do. But by in large, I came away with more of a laissez faire attitude among catalogers. Few seem to be panicking. (Or maybe, if you could afford to attend the conference, you could afford the postage increase?)

As for Internet Retailer, I couldn’t really put my finger on any one lead topic du jour. Attendees come to that show looking for any and all possible pointers on all topics Internet. Their companies appear to operate in less silo-like manner, so they have to know all regardless of their jobs.

And with regard to the seminars, as attentive as the catalog/multichannel marketers in attendance at the ACCM have always been, the Internet Retailer crowd was even more attentive.

Conference Truth Serum

I’m able to bring a little dose of truth serum with me to these conferences. You see, having written dozens of sales roundups over the years that tried to convey an overall sales picture and some clear-cut trends, I never got the sense that I was getting a true read on how the industry-at-large was doing. Even if I were to rely on quarterly reports from public companies, some key details would often be missing (eg: don’t break out catalog/Internet sales). All reasons why we don’t do sales/trends/round-up stories very often in Catalog Success.

But when I meet you folks in person, I get a pretty true read. Here are four telling scenarios:

1. Me: “Hey there, how’s business?”

Cataloger 1: “Absolutely fantastic. We’ve had a 20 percent sales gain this year. Customers love our catalog’s new look and they’re flocking to our Web site. Things couldn’t be better.”

The truth: business is rock solid.

2. Me: “Howdy, what’s going on at your company?

Cataloger 2: Oh, all sorts of things. We just got out our new early summer catalog and orders are beginning to come in.

The Truth: Sales are flat.

3. Me: “Hey, how’s business?”

Cataloger 3: “We’re coming along, working hard. Business could be better, but we’re getting by.”

The truth: Sales are down single digits.

4. Me: Hi there, you look a little overwhelmed, how are things?

Cataloger 4: Been a tough year, trying to gather all I can at this conference.

The truth: Sales are tumbling; business is in trouble.

Dealing With the Rate Hike

Fortunately, I didn’t meet too many like Cataloger 4 this year. And the sense I got at ACCM was that many of you long ago figured out how to deal with huge postage increases and that you’ll get by.

Internet Retailer is a different story, because that market remains so immature. It’s still very much the Wild West and attendees work for companies that are more interested in building up their sales than worrying about their profits.

What does all that mean? Strive for a combination of reasonably aggressive prospecting and cost-cutting. Come November, I believe consumer spending for holiday will be robust, as the 2008 presidential campaign starts taking root. There’ll be sales to be had; go get them while you can, and tweak your costs when you can. Those who can implement a well balanced dose of this ought to come out just fine.

This is your space. Let me know if I’ve hit the mark here or not. Share your take on how the year is going.