Holiday Forecasting Tips to Ensure Customers Get Products on Time

As the holiday season approaches, brands shipping direct-to-consumer (DTC) or to retailers face the significant challenge of ensuring timely product delivery. The end goal, no matter your e-commerce omnichannel strategy, is to get products in customers' hands by the holiday gift-giving season.

Proper forecasting and strategic planning are essential to meet customer expectations and capitalize on the holiday sales surge. Here are some holiday forecasting tips to ensure your customers have your products in hand in time for gift-giving season.

How to Ensure DTC Holiday Success

For DTC e-commerce brands, accurate forecasting is crucial to meeting customer demand and maximizing customer satisfaction. Where many brands miss the mark is by having a limited scope of what their forecast should include; don’t forget to consider your needs for labor, materials, logistics and shipping capacity.

1. Forecast your sales volume and continue to update it weekly (or daily) up to the actual holiday. Layer your forecast with actual promotions so everyone understands how a promotion affects order demand. Check against your actual volume often to check accuracy — the tighter your forecast is, the more confidence you’ll have in your ability to meet your order service-level agreements (SLAs).
2. Communicate your product and material needs to suppliers and supply chain partners to understand your lead times. Special holiday packaging or limited product offers should be prepared in advance to streamline operations and meet the anticipated increase in demand.
3. Collaborate early with your third-party logistics provider (3PL) to understand the bandwidth required during holidays and weekends. Early discussions with your 3PL can prevent bottlenecks and ensure a smooth supply chain operation.
4. Implement and test value-adds like product bundles and custom messages ahead of time to drive customer interest and then make necessary adjustments. Bundles can enhance perceived value and drive increased sales, while personalized messages can create a memorable customer experience, fostering loyalty and repeat business.
5. Analyze and plan any expedited shipping services prior to the holiday season. This will help you stay in front of any surcharges and limit surprise costs. With an expedited option you’ll help drive sales, especially for last-minute shoppers.

The Holiday Retail Readiness Timeline  

Retail readiness involves ensuring that products are in stores and ready for sale well before the holiday rush begins. Depending on the vertical, many e-commerce brands primarily rely on retail sales; for some it may make up to 60 percent to 70 percent of their annual revenue.

Timing is key for big-box and wholesale holiday sales. Retail readiness for the holiday season starts as early as July and August. This means forecasting, planning, kitting and bundling happen much earlier than DTC holiday prep. Here are three steps to take:

1. Coordinate with suppliers to stock adequate inventory levels and finalize holiday packaging.
2. Communicate your needs with your fulfillment team to ensure kitting, inserts and bundles are properly set up.
3. Clarify with retailers to understand their needs and timelines. Any missed pickups or issues with labels or packaging can limit your ability to be front and center on their shelves.

The Key to Customer Satisfaction During the Holidays

The holiday season can be a double-edged sword for many brands. At once the surge in orders can lead to the most lucrative time of the year, offering a tremendous opportunity for revenue growth, while simultaneously putting strain on your order fulfillment process, leading to potential pitfalls such as delays, errors and unhappy customers.

By working with reliable and experienced supply chain partners, you can ensure your products are delivered to customers on time and perfectly. Your partners will help streamline your operations to make this holiday season your best yet.

Dave Tu is the president of DCL Logistics, a modern 3PL grounded by 40 years of operational expertise.